The Stormers can do the Bulls and Lions a few favours over the next two United Rugby Championship matches if they can beat Ulster and Cardiff away from home.
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With the United Rugby Championship (URC) entering a decisive two-week stretch, South Africa’s trio of contenders — the Stormers, Lions, and Bulls — find themselves in a rare position: not just fighting for their own play-off spots, but potentially shaping each other’s fortunes in the tournament.
The Stormers, currently perched at the summit of the log, have momentum and confidence on their side following a strong win in their last outing against the Glasgow Warriors. Their biggest challenge over the next two rounds will not be about survival — they have already secured qualification for the knockouts — but rather about maintaining control at the top.
Away fixtures against Ulster and Cardiff will present their own challenges, but they also offer an opportunity to deny their lower-ranked European opponents valuable log points, with both sides still chasing a Top 8 finish.
With those teams currently below and ahead of the Bulls and hunting down the Lions in third, a Stormers victory would also provide a timely boost for their compatriots. That places a significant responsibility on the Cape side, particularly with regard to their arch-rivals from Pretoria.
The Lions have been one of the season’s most consistent outfits and arrive in Ireland on the back of a six-match winning streak, built on a series of impressive performances at Ellis Park.
Their task now is to sharpen their edge on tour against Leinster and Munster. Victories there would do the Stormers a favour by handing further defeats to the Irish duo, although that is far easier said than done. The Lions will be mindful of not overreaching.
First up is a daunting clash with defending champions Leinster in Dublin this Saturday — a proper test to begin with. Two losses without picking up points could still derail their season, so the priority will be to collect as many points as possible, even in defeat.
That said, a well-timed win over a play-off rival could open the door for the Bulls to climb into a stronger seeding position, while keeping the Stormers above the Irish sides The Lions’ fast and expansive style has unsettled northern hemisphere sides all season, but they may need to adapt and adopt a more knockout-focused mindset in these final fixtures.
For the Bulls, currently seventh, the equation is more pressing. They remain within striking distance of the top four and, crucially, have two Italian sides visiting Loftus Versfeld.
Their physical, forwards-driven approach remains their greatest strength, particularly at altitude, and they should fancy their chances for 10 points against Zebre Parma this weekend and Benetton in the final round. Their play-off fate is largely in their hands, but they will closely monitor how the Stormers and Lions perform against common rivals.
Any slip-ups above them on the log could translate into a valuable rise in the standings — provided they continue to take care of their own business. Benetton should be their toughest clash, but they should not have any trouble putting them to bed in Pretoria.
While each franchise will be focused on finishing as high as possible, there is an underlying awareness of how their results can benefit one another. That could ultimately lead to three South African sides securing home quarter-finals — something that has never been achieved before.