Professor Modisane breaks down SONA 2026: Ambitious promises but tough road ahead

The 2026 State of the Nation Address (SONA) delivered by President Cyril Ramaphosa outlines government’s priorities for economic growth, service delivery, infrastructure investment and the fight against crime. Constitutionally, SONA is not merely ceremonial. It isa foundational mechanism through which Parliament is enabled to exercise oversight and set the national policy agenda. In this sense, it remains one of the most important events in South Africa’s democratic calendar. At a time of persistent economic fragility, infrastructure strain and institutional capacity challenges, South Africans are not only looking for vision, but for bold, measurable and implementable commitments.

A focused SONA can indeed set the tone for meaningful progress, but only if delivery matches ambition. Macro-Economic Signals and Investor Confidence The President highlighted several encouraging macroeconomic indicators, including improvements in the performance of the JSE, a reduction in South Africa’s borrowing costs, better functioning ports, the partial restoration of passenger rail, and the renewed credibility of SARS as a revenue authority. These signals matter. They speak directly to confidence, efficiency and institutional recovery, all of which are prerequisites for sustained growth. However, macroeconomic stabilisation must translate into broad-based, inclusive growth.

The President’s stated priorities, namely driving inclusive growth, reducing unemployment, building an ethical developmental state particularly at municipal level, tackling crime, and improving education, are well aligned with South Africa’s structural constraints. The critical question is not whether these priorities are correct, but whether state capacity and execution discipline are sufficient to realise them. Infrastructure Investment as a Growth Engine Infrastructure development remains the central pillar of the growth strategy.

The commitment of over R1 trillion towards infrastructure, including R156 billion for water and sanitation over the next three years, reflects a clear recognition that economic recovery depends on reliable, efficient and well-maintained public infrastructure. The proposal to establish professionally managed, ringfenced utilities for water and electricity at municipal level is particularly significant. If implemented properly, this could improve governance, maintenance, investment planning and financial sustainability in sectors that are currently plagued by underperformance and decay. From an economic perspective, fiscal discipline combined with strategic capital investment is the correct policy mix. Growth is not stimulated by consumption-led spending alone, but by investment in assets that raise long-term productive capacity, including ports, rail, energy, water and digital systems. In this regard, SONA 2026 signals a welcome continuation of an infrastructure-led growth framework.

Energy Reform and the Transition to a New Power System

The commitment that over 40 percent of electricity will come from clean, renewable sources by 2030, alongside the launch of independent transmission projects and the target to end load reduction by 2027, marks a decisive shift in energy policy. Regulatory reforms have already unlocked significant private investment in generation capacity. This transition is not only an energy reform. It is an industrial and competitiveness reform. Reliable, affordable electricity is a precondition for reindustrialisation, services sector expansion and digital economic growth. However, it must be acknowledged that modern industrialisation is increasingly capital- and technology-intensive, creating fewer traditional factory jobs. This reinforces the importance of services, green industries and skills-intensive sectors as the main drivers of employment growth.

Digital Transformation and the Capable State

The announcement of a Digital ID and the expansion of the MyMzansi platform to include digital driver’s licenses, IDs, passports and matric certificates represents a potentially transformative shift in public service delivery. If executed properly, digitalisation can reduce transaction costs, limit corruption opportunities, improve efficiency and expand access, especially for citizens in remote areas. From a governance and public finance perspective, digital transformation is not optional. It isa core requirement of a capable developmental state. However, technology alone is insufficient. The state must invest in skills, cybersecurity, data governance, systems integration and institutional change management. Without this, digital reform risks becoming fragmented, uneven and vulnerable to failure.

Crime, Security and the Investment Climate

The SONA places strong emphasis on crime, corruption and the criminal justice system. The deployment of the SANDF in the Western Cape and Gauteng, the re-vetting of senior SAPS and metro police officials, lifestyle audits, and the strengthening of specialised task teams signal a more assertive security posture. This is economically significant. High crime levels function as an implicit tax on investment, raising costs, increasing uncertainty and deterring both domestic and foreign capital. The proposed National Illicit Economy Disruption Programme is therefore not only a security intervention, but also an economic necessity. That said, the true test will lie in execution, coordination and measurable outcomes. Announcements alone do not dismantle organised crime networks. Sustained institutional reform, intelligence capability, prosecutorial effectiveness and judicial efficiency will determine whether these interventions produce lasting economic and social dividends.

Municipal Governance and Service Delivery

Few issues are as economically destructive as municipal failure. The President's acknowledgement of water shortages, infrastructure decay and governance weaknesses, and the commitment to faster national intervention, reflect a realistic assessment of the problem. The proposal for fundamental local government reform, including a revised White Paper and independent appointment of senior officials, is potentially far-reaching. However, municipalities are already highly regulated. The binding constraint is not policy design, but capacity, skills, accountability and execution. From a public finance and governance perspective, municipalities are structurally under-capacitated relative to their mandates. They manage complex infrastructure portfolios with limited technical, financial and project management capability. A credible reform strategy must therefore prioritise professionalisation of local government, skills deployment, maintenance funding and asset management, and clear lines of accountability and intervention. Reliable basic services are not only a social necessity. They are also a core economic input.

Fiscal Accountability and Public Financial Management

SONA implicitly recognises that fiscal space is constrained. This places a premium on expenditure efficiency, performance management and consequence management. The role of the Auditor-General’s findings in tracking underperformance and financial mismanagement must be strengthened and integrated into executive decision-making. The persistent gap between policy commitments and delivery outcomes creates fiscal fragility. Over time, this erodes public trust, weakens investor confidence and increases the cost of borrowing. Fiscal reform, therefore, is not only about budgets. It is about institutional credibility and governance discipline.

Business Development, Growth and Employment

The emphasis on small business support, including R2.5 billion in funding, easier access to credit through amendments to the National Credit Act, and targeted support for women-owned businesses, is consistent with an inclusive growth agenda. The assurance that the Business Licensing Bill will make it easier, not harder, to start businesses is particularly important for reducing regulatory friction. Youth unemployment remains South Africa’s most urgent socio-economic risk.

While programmes like the Presidential Employment Stimulus have created over 2.5 million opportunities, this must evolve into sustainable, private-sector-led job creation. Long-term employment growth will depend on skills development, investment certainty, infrastructure reliability, crime reduction and functional local government. Education, Skills and the Future Economy The record 88 percent matric pass rate is an encouraging signal, particularly given the strong performance of learners from disadvantaged communities. The commitment to expand universities, TVET colleges and student accommodation addresses a critical supply-side constraint in the labour market.

However, education policy must be tightly aligned with labour market demand and industrial strategy. Expanding access without improving relevance and absorption risks deepening graduate unemployment. A strong economy is built on human capital, institutional quality and opportunity pathways for young people. Conclusion: From Commitments to Capability

SONA 2026 is more focused, more delivery-oriented, and more explicit about the structural constraints facing South Africa, particularly crime, infrastructure failure and municipal underperformance. Its emphasis on fiscal discipline, infrastructure investment, energy reform and institutional rebuilding reflects a coherent economic logic. Yet markets, businesses and citizens are ultimately not persuaded by policy statements. They respond to implementation, accountability and results. The central challenge is therefore not policy direction, but state capability. South Africa now needs clear timelines, defined responsibilities, measurable outcomes, strong oversight and consistent leadership. Only then will the ambitions outlined in SONA2026 translate into sustainable growth, restored confidence and shared prosperity.

*Professor Cameron Modisane is the Deputy Executive Dean in the College of Accounting Sciences at the university of South Africa.