Beware the Ides of March, Julius Caesar was warned before his fatal visit to the Roman forum on March 15, or at least that is what Shakespeare would have us believe. We no longer celebrate that particular religious festival, but Wednesday will be a big day in the political and economic calendar.

It will be the first test on the continent for the wave of populism sweeping through Europe: the Dutch elections. There are rumours it may well also be the day that the UK triggers Article 50, giving notice of the intention to leave the EU, although this is still dependent on parliamentary procedure. And it will be the day when the US Federal Reserve again increases interest rates, signalling the divergence in economic fortune between the US and the eurozone.

The three hang together.

In the Netherlands, nationalist politician Geert Wilders is consistently running either first or second in the polls after calling for the country to leave the EU. The UK has already decided to do so. And what is happening in the US is a stark reminder of the extent to which the country has had a much more positive economic experience than most of Europe since the great recession in 2009.

If voters are fed up with the status quo in the US, voters in Europe have even more reason to be tetchy.

Beneficial relationship

The Netherlands matters most, however, because the pitch that it might leave the EU ought not to gain much support. It was one of the founding members and has done very well out of its membership. According to Eurostat, it has the highest per capita gross domestic product of any country in the EU, bar Luxembourg and the rather special case of Ireland. It also has a relatively egalitarian society, good infrastructure, relatively low unemployment (5.3percent) and a successful business sector.

As it happens, I have been in Amsterdam twice in the past few weeks, talking with some business people. The message was not only one of regret about Britain’s exit, but also concern about any weakening of trade between the UK and Europe. There was inevitably a certain bewilderment at the choice UK voters had made, but that was easier to understand than the local political mood. Why should people in the calm, prosperous and stable society be starting to rebel against Europe?

Protecting identity

What’s going on in the Netherlands is not about economics; it is about identity. Wilders’s attacks on Muslims represent his anti-immigration sentiment, as does the slogan “the Netherlands ours again”. But the rise of populism may have more to do with a desire to protect and respect the Dutch way than limiting immigration per se. Across the country, there are hints towards this idea, focusing on the importance of Dutch food and drink, advertisements celebrating national culture, the easy egalitarian relationship between the genders, and so on.

If the EU is to hold together, it has to downplay being “European” and allow national divergence. This means accepting and celebrating patriotism, rather than seeing it as a relic of an uncomfortable past. If the Netherlands, of all countries, is signalling distress with how the EU is developing, then populism is shifting the ground across the entire continent and not just in this calm and successful nation. Beware the Ides of March indeed. -

THE INDEPENDENT